At age 40, 1% of women can be expected to have breast cancer. Of those women with breast cancer, 80%

At age 40, 1% of women can be expected to
have breast cancer. Of those women with breast cancer, 80% will have positive
mammographies. In addition, 9.6% of women who do not have breast cancer will
have a positive mammography. If a woman in this age group tests positive for
breast cancer, what is the probability that she actually has it. Use Bayes
theorem to solve this problem. (Hint: Letting BC stand for breast cancer, we
have p(BC) 5 .01, p(1|BC) 5 .80, and p(1| ) 5 .096. You want to solve for
p(BC|1).)

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